“Disruptive” Technologies Retrospective
“Disruptive” Technologies Retrospective
A hype-cycle-aware tier list
If you worked in tech in 2016, you were unironically making the world a better place.
Dozens of revolutionary technologies were emerging, each one poised to change the world. Their peaks of inflated expectations overlapped to create a supercycle of tech euphoria the likes of which had not been seen since the dot-com bubble.
The end of 2016 brought the party to a close. Russian election interference, the unfolding Cambridge Analytica scandal, and savage algorithmically-polarised discourse converted visionary tech CEOs into the hoodie-drawstring-twirling axis of evil overnight.
Are our dreams of a technological utopia dead?
Much like the hype cycle itself, tech has experienced a reputational rollercoaster. The era-defining disruptive technologies gradually trundled through disillusionment through to enlightenment, productivity, or perhaps total irrelevance.
I think I speak for all of us when I say, grumpily, “where’s my jetpack?”
“We wanted flying cars, instead we got 140 characters.”
— Peter Thiel
Let’s take a retrospective view on the 2010’s hot topics and see how they stack up today.
I’m going to base my ranking primarily on two things:
The extent to which the tech lived up to their promised hype
My own opinions and hot takes (without which it wouldn’t be a tier list)
Feel free to leave furious refutations in the comments below if you disagree. And create your own version of this tier list here!
Drones
What we were promised
Amazon captured the world’s imagination when they promised 30-minute drone delivery. We expected disruption to any and all industries that might involve surveying large land areas, such as agriculture, fossil fuels, and chemicals.
What we got
A decent bit of niche industrial usage, but primarily we got a neat way to film cool aerial shots… and, if you’re a douchebag on TikTok, a nifty method of grounding flights.
B tier
Blockchain
What we were promised
A tear-down of the global financial system. Revenge on the banks for 2008. Decentralised, transparent finance free from the regulations of the crusty, backward-thinking world governments. Smart contracts creating unshakeable promises to obsolete the legal system.
What we got
Blockchain immediately found a killer app — a really effective way of anonymously buying drugs on the internet. Unfortunately, in the sea of countless rug-pulls and Ponzi scams, nobody has since been able to find any useful applications more interesting than monkey JPEGs.
D tier
Virtual Reality & Augmented Reality
What we were promised
Immersive gaming experiences. Ultra-realistic training simulations for doctors. Remote oil field workers, decked out in AR headsets, talked through specialised repairs by an expert on the other side of the world. HUDs in your real life.
What we got
Google Glass melting your face like you’re a Nazi raiding the Lost Ark. A small number of really cool games like Beat Saber, Super Hot, and Attack on Titan. I’m still waiting to try the Vision Pro wildcard. In fairness, I’d probably give VR/AR an A had I not been tortured in 2017 by the typing experience on the Microsoft Hololens’ floating keyboard.
B tier
Self-driving cars
What we were promised
Your car; but it drives itself. Have you been asleep the last 10 years? Well, that’s fine, your car drove itself while you were out of it. You’re safe.
What we got
Uber, after 10 years of promising that this was the key to profitability, hilariously sold their self-driving unit in 2020 and focused on the more economically viable practice of bringing me Chinese food every Friday. Self-driving cars have been “nearly ready” since about 2014, and I’m suspicious the last 20% of progress just isn’t possible. This still doesn’t stop Elon selling the feature, and killing people.
D tier
Internet of Things
What we were promised
Iron Man’s AI assistant, Jarvis, in your own home. Smart voice-activated electronics connecting to your house, your lights, your locks, your printer, and even your weekly grocery shop. Your smart thermostat learning what you like, and keeping you at the perfect temperature like a high-welfare Christmas turkey.
What we got
“Alexa. Alexa. Alexa.” “Play Taylor Swift”
“I can’t play Taylor Swift on Amazon Music, you need a subscription.”
“Alexa. Play Taylor Swift on Spotify.”
“Adding Taylor Swift on Spotify to your Amazon shopping list”
C tier
5G
What we were promised
10Gb/s download speeds. Incredible connectivity that can tie all the other smart tech in this list together with near-zero latency.
What we got
Well, I suppose my network speed is a bit faster, but the move to 4k video has kind of scuppered any benefits.
C tier
3D Printing
What we were promised
The quintessential disruptive tech. Near-zero-marginal-cost manufacture that could be shared instantly around the world in the same way as software. Rapid prototyping, on-demand production, and radically disrupted global supply chains. 3D printed houses.
What we got
I’m going to be generous. 3D printing did a pretty great job of doing what it said on the tin. Pretty much all the core benefits have been delivered, and it’s created a neat market of cool, cheap, desk toys on Etsy.
S tier
Genome Editing and RNA
What we were promised
I’m probably going to annoy biotech bros by conflating these, but just be glad that it made the cut (unlike “Big Data”). Personalised medicine, the cure for cancer, eradicating disease. CRISPR giving us gene editing on-the-fly.
What we got
(Fortunately) we don’t yet have eugenically advanced super-babies, but also we still have cancer, so the jury is still out. RNA tech allowed the original coronavirus vaccine to be developed over a weekend, which alone carries this to an easy A-tier.
A tier
Wearables
What we were promised
Continuous health monitoring. Advanced diagnostics. Seamless payments and seamless integration with our menagerie of IoT devices. Coolness.
What we got
Look, I’m sorry, but I don’t think anyone ever thought smart watches would be fashionable. Douglas Adams said it best: “[humans are] so amazingly primitive that they still think digital watches are a pretty neat idea.” While I’m pretty underwhelmed by FitBit and Apple Watch, they didn’t do a bad job delivering on their promises as health and fitness devices.
B tier
iBeacon
What we were promised
Magical personalisation of retail experiences with perfectly-timed “wow” moments connecting brands to customers. Museums and stadiums creating direct relationships with their customers and giving you an automated guided tour.
What we got
Frankly, I forgot about these. I have had a grand total of zero interactions with an iBeacon in the wild. I did recently interview a chap who worked on a car peripheral, and it turned out iBeacons were actually quite effective for detecting your phone and unlocking your car at short range. He didn’t get the job, but massive props to him for finding the one use case that isn’t obviously dumb.
C tier
Graphene
What we were promised
What wasn’t promised by graphene? An atom-thick, ultra-light, ultra-conductive sheet stronger than steel, manufacturable via sticky tape, pencil lead, and some jiggling. Supercapacitors and ultra-high-storage batteries. Hyper-efficient thermal cooling for computers. Hell, why not offer some new drug delivery mechanisms, biological tissue engineering, and solving the clean water crisis while you’re at it?
What we got
Bloody hell, this part will be short.
Research is ongoing.
I’ll begrudgingly give it C tier because it hasn’t actively killed anyone as far as I can tell.
C tier
Chatbots
What we were promised
Optimised customer service, high user engagement, and 24/7 support without the need for human intervention, cutting out your offshored service centre in India and bolstering the bottom line. Automated upselling opportunities, personalised experience for each user, and multilingual support!
What we got
# chatbot.py
while True:
print("🌸 Hey there! I'm Cindy the E-bot! 🌟 Here to sprinkle some digital magic on your day!")
print("✨ How can I assist you in the world of e-wonder? ✨")
user_input = input()
print("Oh, bummer! 😔 But don't you worry! Have you tried checking our absolutely fabulous FAQs? 🤓")
user_input = input()
if user_input.lower() == "let me speak to a f*cking human":
print("Okay, darling! 🌈 Our customer service number is 0800-666-616.")
print("If you change your mind, Cindy the E-bot is here to sprinkle some more e-help! Stay sparkly! 💖")
break
else:
print("Aw, sorry, I still can't help with that 🥲")
print("Maybe try checking our FAQs or contacting customer service directly.")D tier
Artificial Intelligence
What we were promised
AGI. ASI. The singularity. Revolutionising every cognitive function and freeing us humans to focus on creative work that gives us meaning. Decision-making without the constraints of human biases. Detecting cancer better than trained doctors.
What we got
IBM Watson was a hilarious flop. AI decision-making was even worse — it turns out, if you train your hiring AI with historical data, it’ll realise you really like hiring white tech bros. MidJourney is great at churning out digital art, and can do it at a far lower marginal cost than a creative human trying to produce meaningful work.
Ugh, fine, I suppose I’ll give it an A-tier.
A tier
The Final Tier List
Disagree? Think you can do better?
Hit this link to create your own tier list and post it in the comments below!
Conclusion
Famed futurologist Roy Amara has an adage about hype cycles:
“We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.”
— Amara’s Law
While, in the last decade, many of these technologies have failed to live up to their original promises, they are still largely in their infancy.
Picture the worldwide hype that surrounded the moon landing. In 1969, would you have taken a bet that punch card mainframes would, in the next 50 years, prove to be more important than space travel?
All the disruptive technologies on this list still have the potential to prove themselves, deliver their grand visions, and carry us into the tech utopia we’ve dreamed of since 2016.
…except for blockchain.